Astrophysics Milestones for Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detection

Nihan S Pol; Stephen R Taylor; Luke Zoltan Kelley; Sarah J Vigeland; Joseph Simon; Siyuan Chen; Zaven Arzoumanian; Paul T Baker; Bence Becsy; Adam Brazier; Paul R Brook; Sarah Burke-Spolaor; Shami Chatterjee; James M Cordes; Neil J Cornish; Fronefield Crawford; H Thankful Cromartie; Megan E DeCesar; Paul B Demorest; Timothy Dolch; Elizabeth C Ferrara; William Fiore; Emmanuel Fonseca; Nathan Garver-Daniels; Deborah C Good; Jeffrey S Hazboun; Ross J Jennings; Megan L Jones; Andrew R Kaiser; David L Kaplan; Joey Shapiro Key; Michael T Lam; T. Joseph W Lazio; Jing Luo; Ryan S Lynch; Dustin R Madison; Alexander McEwen; Maura A McLaughlin; Chiara M. F Mingarelli; Cherry Ng; David J Nice; Timothy T Pennucci; Scott M Ransom; Paul S Ray; Brent J Shapiro-Albert; Xavier Siemens; Ingrid H Stairs; Daniel R Stinebring; Joseph K Swiggum; Michele Vallisneri; Haley Wahl; Caitlin A Witt; NANOGrav Collaboration

doi:10.3847/2041-8213/abf2c9

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Astrophysics Milestones for Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detection

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Astrophysics Milestones for Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detection

Nihan S Pol, Stephen R Taylor, Luke Zoltan Kelley, Sarah J Vigeland, Joseph Simon, Siyuan Chen, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T Baker, Bence Becsy, Adam Brazier, …

Astrophysical journal. Letters, Vol.911(2), p.L34

01/04/2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/abf2c9

Abstract

Astronomy & Astrophysics

Physical Sciences

Science & Technology

The NANOGrav Collaboration reported strong Bayesian evidence for a common-spectrum stochastic process in its 12.5 yr pulsar timing array data set, with median characteristic strain amplitude at periods of a year of. However, evidence for the quadrupolar Hellings & Downs interpulsar correlations, which are characteristic of gravitational-wave signals, was not yet significant. We emulate and extend the NANOGrav data set, injecting a wide range of stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) signals that encompass a variety of amplitudes and spectral shapes, and quantify three key milestones. (I) Given the amplitude measured in the 12.5 yr analysis and assuming this signal is a GWB, we expect to accumulate robust evidence of an interpulsar-correlated GWB signal with 15-17 yr of data, i.e., an additional 2-5 yr from the 12.5 yr data set. (II) At the initial detection, we expect a fractional uncertainty of 40% on the power-law strain spectrum slope, which is sufficient to distinguish a GWB of supermassive black hole binary origin from some models predicting more exotic origins. (III) Similarly, the measured GWB amplitude will have an uncertainty of 44% upon initial detection, allowing us to arbitrate between some population models of supermassive black hole binaries. In addition, power-law models are distinguishable from those having low-frequency spectral turnovers once 20 yr of data are reached. Even though our study is based on the NANOGrav data, we also derive relations that allow for a generalization to other pulsar timing array data sets. Most notably, by combining the data of individual arrays into the International Pulsar Timing Array, all of these milestones can be reached significantly earlier.

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Title: Astrophysics Milestones for Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detection
Creators - without role: Nihan S Pol - Vanderbilt Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, 2301 Vanderbilt Pl, Nashville, TN 37235 USA
Stephen R Taylor - Vanderbilt Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, 2301 Vanderbilt Pl, Nashville, TN 37235 USA
Luke Zoltan Kelley - Northwestern Univ, Ctr Interdisciplinary Explorat & Res Astrophys CI, Evanston, IL 60208 USA
Sarah J Vigeland - Univ Wisconsin, Dept Phys, Ctr Gravitat Cosmol & Astrophys, POB 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA
Joseph Simon - CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, 4800 Oak Grove Dr, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA
Siyuan Chen - Univ Orleans, Lab Phys & Chim Environm & Espace, LPC2E, CNRS,UMR7328, F-45071 Orleans, France
Zaven Arzoumanian - NASA, X Ray Astrophys Lab, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Code 662, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA
Paul T Baker - Widener Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, One Univ Pl, Chester, PA 19013 USA
Bence Becsy - Montana State Univ, Dept Phys, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA
Adam Brazier - Cornell Univ, Cornell Ctr Astrophys & Planetary Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA
Paul R Brook - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Sarah Burke-Spolaor - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Shami Chatterjee - Cornell Univ, Cornell Ctr Astrophys & Planetary Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA
James M Cordes - Cornell Univ, Cornell Ctr Astrophys & Planetary Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA
Neil J Cornish - Montana State Univ, Dept Phys, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA
Fronefield Crawford - Franklin & Marshall Coll, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 3003, Lancaster, PA 17604 USA
H Thankful Cromartie - Cornell Univ, Cornell Ctr Astrophys & Planetary Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA
Megan E DeCesar - George Mason Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA
Paul B Demorest - Natl Radio Astron Observ, 1003 Lopezville Rd, Socorro, NM 87801 USA
Timothy Dolch - Hillsdale Coll, Dept Phys, 33 E Coll St, Hillsdale, MI 49242 USA
Elizabeth C Ferrara - NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA
William Fiore - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Emmanuel Fonseca - McGill Univ, Dept Phys, 3600 Univ St, Montreal, PQ H3A 2T8, Canada
Nathan Garver-Daniels - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Deborah C Good - Univ British Columbia, Dept Phys & Astron, 6224 Agr Rd, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1, Canada
Jeffrey S Hazboun - Univ Washington, 18115 Campus Way NE, Bothell, WA 98011 USA
Ross J Jennings - Cornell Univ, Cornell Ctr Astrophys & Planetary Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA
Megan L Jones - Univ Wisconsin, Dept Phys, Ctr Gravitat Cosmol & Astrophys, POB 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA
Andrew R Kaiser - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
David L Kaplan - Univ Wisconsin, Dept Phys, Ctr Gravitat Cosmol & Astrophys, POB 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA
Joey Shapiro Key - Univ Washington, 18115 Campus Way NE, Bothell, WA 98011 USA
Michael T Lam - Rochester Inst Technol, Sch Phys & Astron, Rochester, NY 14623 USA
T. Joseph W Lazio - CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, 4800 Oak Grove Dr, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA
Jing Luo - Univ Toronto, Dept Astron & Astrophys, 50 St George St, Toronto, ON M5S 3H4, Canada
Ryan S Lynch - Green Bank Observ, POB 2, Green Bank, WV 24944 USA
Dustin R Madison - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Alexander McEwen - Univ Wisconsin, Dept Phys, Ctr Gravitat Cosmol & Astrophys, POB 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA
Maura A McLaughlin - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Chiara M. F Mingarelli - Flatiron Inst, Ctr Computat Astrophys, 162 5th Ave, New York, NY 10010 USA
Cherry Ng - Univ Toronto, Dunlap Inst Astron & Astrophys, 50 St George St, Toronto, ON M5S 3H4, Canada
David J Nice - Lafayette Coll, Dept Phys, Easton, PA 18042 USA
Timothy T Pennucci - Natl Radio Astron Observ, 520 Edgemont Rd, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA
Scott M Ransom - Natl Radio Astron Observ, 520 Edgemont Rd, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA
Paul S Ray - Naval Res Lab, Div Space Sci, Washington, DC 20375 USA
Brent J Shapiro-Albert - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Xavier Siemens - Univ Wisconsin, Dept Phys, Ctr Gravitat Cosmol & Astrophys, POB 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA
Ingrid H Stairs - Univ British Columbia, Dept Phys & Astron, 6224 Agr Rd, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1, Canada
Daniel R Stinebring - Oberlin Coll, Dept Phys & Astron, Oberlin, OH 44074 USA
Joseph K Swiggum - Lafayette Coll, Dept Phys, Easton, PA 18042 USA
Michele Vallisneri - CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, 4800 Oak Grove Dr, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA
Haley Wahl - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Caitlin A Witt - West Virginia Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, POB 6315, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
NANOGrav Collaboration
Publication Details: Astrophysical journal. Letters, Vol.911(2), p.L34
Publisher: IOP Publishing Ltd
Number of pages: 10
Grant note: 1430284 / National Science Foundation (NSF) Physics Frontiers Center; National Science Foundation (NSF) Simons Foundation Vanderbilt University's College of Arts Science state of West Virginia (WVEPSCoR via the Higher Education Policy Commission) 2009468 / NSF AAG; National Science Foundation (NSF); NSF - Directorate for Mathematical & Physical Sciences (MPS) HST-HF2-51453.001 / NASA through the NASA Hubble Fellowship Program - Space Telescope Science Institute Canadian Institute for Advanced Research; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) JPL RTD program 1003907 / National Science Foundation EPSCoR Research Infrastructure Improvement Cooperative; National Science Foundation (NSF) NAS5-26555; 80GSFC17M0002 / NASA; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) WVU MTA-ELTE Extragalactic Astrophysics Research Group - Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Magyar Tudomanyos Akademia) 1458952; 1815664; 2007993 / NSF; National Science Foundation (NSF) NSERC Discovery Grant; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
Identifiers: 991019295375207081
Academic Unit: Physics
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article